A safe operating space for humanity

Nature 461, 472-475 (24 September 2009) | doi:10.1038/461472a; Published online 23 September 2009

Read the full feature at - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v461/n7263/full/461472a.html

Johan Rockström^1,2, Will Steffen^1,3, Kevin Noone^1,4, Åsa Persson^1,2, F. Stuart Chapin, III⁵, Eric F. Lambin⁶, Timothy M. Lenton⁷, Marten Scheffer⁸, Carl Folke^1,9, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber^10,11, Björn Nykvist^1,2, Cynthia A. de Wit⁴, Terry Hughes¹², Sander van der Leeuw¹³, Henning Rodhe¹⁴, Sverker Sörlin^1,15, Peter K. Snyder¹⁶, Robert Costanza^1,17, Uno Svedin¹, Malin Falkenmark^1,18, Louise Karlberg^1,2, Robert W. Corell¹⁹, Victoria J. Fabry²⁰, James Hansen²¹, Brian Walker^1,22, Diana Liverman^23,24, Katherine Richardson²⁵, Paul Crutzen²⁶ & Jonathan A. Foley²⁷

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Abstract

Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental change, argue Johan Rockström and colleagues.

Summary

• New approach proposed for defining preconditions for human development
• Crossing certain biophysical thresholds could have disastrous consequences for humanity
• Three of nine interlinked planetary boundaries have already been overstepped

Although Earth has undergone many periods of significant environmental change, the planet's environment has been unusually stable for the past 10,000 years^1, 2, 3. This period of stability — known to geologists as the Holocene — has seen human civilizations arise, develop and thrive. Such stability may now be under threat. Since the Industrial Revolution, a new era has arisen, the Anthropocene⁴, in which human actions have become the main driver of global environmental change⁵. This could see human activities push the Earth system outside the stable environmental state of the Holocene, with consequences that are detrimental or even catastrophic for large parts of the world.

During the Holocene, environmental change occurred naturally and Earth's regulatory capacity maintained the conditions that enabled human development. Regular temperatures, freshwater availability and biogeochemical flows all stayed within a relatively narrow range. Now, largely because of a rapidly growing reliance on fossil fuels and industrialized forms of agriculture, human activities have reached a level that could damage the systems that keep Earth in the desirable Holocene state. The result could be irreversible and, in some cases, abrupt environmental change, leading to a state less conducive to human development⁶. Without pressure from humans, the Holocene is expected to continue for at least several thousands of years⁷.