Garnaut's 'softly softly' line on cutting emissions

• Adam Morton and Chris Hammer
• September 6, 2008
• http://www.theage.com.au/national/garnauts-softly-softly-line-on-cutting-emissions-20080905-4aq1.html?page=-1

AUSTRALIA should accept that an ambitious global treaty on climate change is virtually impossible in the short term and make a gentle start on cutting greenhouse gases, the Government's climate change adviser says.

Launching his economic modelling of the impact of climate change yesterday, Professor Garnaut called for a 10% greenhouse emissions cut below 2000 levels by 2020 as part of an achievable international deal.

If a new global deal — including China accepting binding emissions targets — was not reached, the Government would set a target of no more than 5%.

Green groups savaged the proposed targets, claiming the veteran economist was accepting catastrophic climate change and effectively abandoning landmarks such as the Great Barrier Reef and the Murray River.

Professor Garnaut said there was "just a chance" dangerous climate change could be avoided, but it was a global problem and Australia must work within an international framework.

"The review has reluctantly concluded that a more ambitious international agreement is not possible at this stage," he said.

Professor Garnaut argued that his recommended cuts were much deeper than they first appeared when analysed on a per capita basis, which he considers the only way to reach a significant global deal.

Given Australia's high level of immigration, a 10% emissions cut would mean a 30% cut in pollution per head. Australia has the second highest per capita greenhouse emissions in the developed world.

The Garnaut Climate Change Review says that cutting atmospheric pollution at this rate would reduce Australia's GDP in 2020 by 1.1% from business as usual. At a household level, it would increase electricity bills by 40%, a rise Professor Garnaut said must be offset for low-income earners through a compensation scheme paid for with emissions trading revenue.

A 10% emissions target would help stabilise atmospheric carbon dioxide at 550 parts per million, a level scientists warn would have no hope of preventing the worst effects of climate change, including mass species extinction and a high probability of irreversible melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Professor Garnaut said this would ideally provide a pathway to cutting emissions to 450 parts per million, the target advocated by international negotiators at Bali last December.

That would require Australia to make a 25% cut by 2020 but he was pessimistic about the prospects of it happening. "My judgement is that the best chance is to, in the next couple of years, lock up an achievable but extremely difficult agreement around 550 parts per million.

"I have to say the odds are not great for the Great Barrier Reef or for the economic base of the communities of the Murray-Darling if the world gets no further than 550 parts per million."

Professor Garnaut's supplementary draft report also says:

■Emissions trading should start in 2010 with a fixed carbon price of $20 a tonne, rising by 4% plus the rate of inflation each year.

■Limiting climate change would reduce economic growth by just 0.1% a year, but unmitigated climate change ultimately would devastate the economy.

■An initial climate deal should include binding targets for China.

Professor Garnaut said China was already acting on climate change and there was a realistic chance of it joining a global deal.

"China right now is doing more to inhibit emissions growth in the energy-intensive industries than Australia is," he said.

Greens leader Bob Brown said Professor Garnaut's work was based on outdated science. He called for a 40% reduction target below 1990 levels, and refused to guarantee that the Greens would support the recommendations in the Senate. "What is the point of having a well-defined model if it brings on a well-predicted catastrophe for the Australian economy?" he said.

The Climate Institute said Professor Garnaut's recommendations were prematurely bleak, and would strip Australia of credibility as international negotiators considered aiming for stabilisation at 450 parts per million.

The European Union has a target of 20% by 2020, increasing to 30% if a global deal is reached.

WWF-Australia chief executive Greg Bourne said Australia would be "laughed out of court" if it turned up to global negotiations proposing a cut of less than 20%.

Business groups had different concerns. The Business Council of Australia, which has been pressing for a low target to prevent industries moving offshore, said the report validated its concerns.

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong gave no indication that Professor Garnaut's report had altered the Government's thinking, but said: "We're very conscious of the importance of a measured start to this scheme."