A COMPREHENSIVE analysis of climate change measures proposed in 109 countries shows that the world is still well short of reducing emissions to a safe level even if all policies achieve their maximum result.
Deutsche Bank's Global Climate Change Policy Tracker, the first quantitative modelling and analysis of global climate policies available, shows that the best-case scenario would still put emissions levels above the desired target by up to seven gigatonnes - equivalent to the annual emissions of the United States.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2007 report found stabilisation at 450 parts per million (ppm) would give a chance of avoiding a 2-degree global temperature rise, the point above which dangerous climate change is predicted.
The Deutsche modelling, prepared by the Columbia Climate Centre, shows that a business-as-usual scenario puts 2020 emissions at 59 gigatonnes.
That compares with 51 gigatonnes that could be reached through current and announced emission reduction policies but still short of the 44-gigatonne level needed to stabilise emissions.
The report finds that if growth does not slow after 2014, as the International Energy Agency and Deutsche's modelling assumes, then an extra seven gigatonnes would be added to the task.
The good news, Deutsche says, is that identified energy-efficiency measures and avoided deforestation creates ''a possibility of getting close to 450 ppm''.
''This represents an opportunity to invest to create jobs and growth, and not just a cost,'' the report says. ''However, it requires a strong deal at Copenhagen, but most importantly, strong follow-through at a sector and industry policy level to create transparency, longevity and certainty.''
Australia scored well in providing the right investment climate for clean energy, ranking among one of the lowest-risk countries alongside Brazil, China, France, Germany and Japan.
''This is because they have strong incentives in place, along with a consistent approach, demonstrated through well-considered plans,'' the report says.
''The United States, United Kingdom and Canada provide moderate risk as they rely on a more volatile market approach and in the case of the US have suffered from a stop-start approach.
However, the $US5.4 billion ($A5.8 billion) directed towards the Australian sector between 2000 and 2008 is dwarfed next to investment in the US ($US52.1 billion), China ($US41.2 billion) and Germany ($36.6 billion).
The report recommends that governments strengthen mandates and incentives immediately so that funds can be targeted to deal with the additional abatement that is required.