Study points to earlier ripening of wine grapes

By Genelle Weule, 

ABC Science, February 27, 2012

A report says winemakers will have to change the way they manage their vineyards to deal with climate change.

It has found grapes are ripening earlier in many of Australia's wine regions due to rising temperatures and drying soils.

Vine management practices, such as decreasing the crop yield, are also contributing to early ripening, says the report.

Previous research indicated grapes were ripening earlier by about eight days per decade over the past 25 years across southern Australia.

Dr Leanne Webb and her team from the CSIRO have now analysed decades of records from wine-growing regions across that region.

"This has been a study of potential influences on wine-grape maturity trends on a continental scale," she said.

The team studied 10 vineyards growing various varieties in five major wine-growing areas in South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia.

Its results are published in the online edition of Nature Climate Change.

The researchers say their study will help wineries develop strategies to deal with climate change.

"You can see whether there's any buttons or levers you can actually use to make changes if it gets hotter," said study co-author Professor Snow Barlow from the University of Melbourne.

He said most winemakers did not want the fruit to ripen early as this was usually when the weather was hotter.

"Hot vintages are not good for quality wines," he said.

The researchers found early ripening was due to a shift towards a warmer climate, which spurred sugar production, and drier soils which activated stress hormones in the roots that promoted maturation.

Practices such as reducing crop yields - pruning of vines so that more energy goes into producing a smaller number of grapes - also contributes to early ripening.

"It does appear that changes in climate, particularly changes in soil moisture, have been driving the grapes towards maturation and it would appear that some management interventions that have some effect on yield may also have been taking the grapes in that direction," said study co-author Dr Penny Whetton from the CSIRO.

Winners and losers

The researchers used the records of sugar levels kept by the vineyards between 1985 to 2009 to assess how grape maturation times had altered.

They combined this with temperature data from the Bureau of Meteorology, modelling of soil moisture and records of crop yields from the winegrowers.

They found early grape maturation occurred in all the vineyards except Margaret River in Western Australia, which had actually dropped back by about half a day per decade.

"When we first did this work it worried us enormously," said Professor Barlow. "But when we actually looked at the temperature records of Margaret River, it hadn't warmed, so there are regional differences in the degree of warming that has occurred."

Professor Barlow said the biggest losers were on the Mornington Peninsula of Victoria, where some grape varieties had ripened about15 days earlier per decade.

"Traditionally because it's wetter [in the Mornington Peninsula] they hadn't really had to worry about [crop irrigation], but if you look in the last 15 years it hasn't been as wet," said Professor Barlow.

While there is little wine grape growers can do about changing climate, the researchers say the study suggests changes in irrigation practices, soil management and crop yield practices might save them from having to take more radical action such as change styles, varieties or even relocate.

"Soil moisture and the yield are both areas where the grape growers can have some control," said Dr Whetton. "Through this research they can give themselves a bit more control over when the grapes mature."

She said the study also had broader implications for understanding the effects of climate change.

"There isn't a lot of work in the southern hemisphere relating trends in biological systems to changes in climate, so this work is actually quite interesting in more generally demonstrating that connection," she said.

First posted February 27, 2012

Climate change will shake the Earth

A changing climate isn't just about floods, droughts and heatwaves. It brings erupting volcanoes and catastrophic earthquakes too

Bill McGuire 

Guardian.co.uk, 26 February 2012

The idea that a changing climate can persuade the ground to shake, volcanoes to rumble and tsunamis to crash on to unsuspecting coastlines seems, at first, to be bordering on the insane. How can what happens in the thin envelope of gas that shrouds and protects our world possibly influence the potentially Earth-shattering processes that operate deep beneath the surface? The fact that it does reflects a failure of our imagination and a limited understanding of the manner in which the different physical components of our planet – the atmosphere, the oceans, and the solid Earth, or geosphere – intertwine and interact.

If we think about climate change at all, most of us do so in a very simplistic way: so, the weather might get a bit warmer; floods and droughts may become more of a problem and sea levels will slowly creep upwards. Evidence reveals, however, that our planet is an almost unimaginably complicated beast, which reacts to a dramatically changing climate in all manner of different ways; a few – like the aforementioned – straightforward and predictable; some surprising and others downright implausible. Into the latter category fall the manifold responses of the geosphere.

The world we inhabit has an outer rind that is extraordinarily sensitive to change. While the Earth's crust may seem safe and secure, the geological calamities that happen with alarming regularity confirm that this is not the case. Here in the UK, we only have to go back a couple years to April 2010, when the word on everyone's lips was Eyjafjallajökull – the ice-covered Icelandic volcano that brought UK and European air traffic to a grinding halt. Less than a year ago, our planet's ability to shock and awe headed the news once again as the east coast of Japan was bludgeoned by a cataclysmic combination of megaquake and tsunami, resulting – at a quarter of a trillion dollars or so – in the biggest natural-catastrophe bill ever.

In the light of such events, it somehow seems appropriate to imagine the Earth beneath our feet as a slumbering giant that tosses and turns periodically in response to various pokes and prods. Mostly, these are supplied by the stresses and strains associated with the eternal dance of a dozen or so rocky tectonic plates across the face of our world; a sedate waltz that proceeds at about the speed that fingernails grow. Changes in the environment too, however, have a key role to play in waking the giant, as growing numbers of geological studies targeting our post-ice age world have disclosed.

Between about 20,000 and 5,000 years ago, our planet underwent an astonishing climatic transformation. Over the course of this period, it flipped from the frigid wasteland of deepest and darkest ice age to the – broadly speaking – balmy, temperate world upon which our civilisation has developed and thrived. During this extraordinarily dynamic episode, as the immense ice sheets melted and colossal volumes of water were decanted back into the oceans, the pressures acting on the solid Earth also underwent massive change. In response, the crust bounced and bent, rocking our planet with a resurgence in volcanic activity, a proliferation of seismic shocks and burgeoning giant landslides.

The most spectacular geological effects were reserved for high latitudes. Here, the crust across much of northern Europe and North America had been forced down by hundreds of metres and held at bay for tens of thousands of years beneath the weight of sheets of ice 20 times thicker than the height of the London Eye. As the ice dissipated in soaring temperatures, the crust popped back up like a coiled spring released, at the same time tearing open major faults and triggering great earthquakes in places where they are unheard of today. Even now, the crust underpinning those parts of Europe and North America formerly imprisoned beneath the great continental ice sheets continues to rise – albeit at a far more sedate rate.

As last year's events in Japan most ably demonstrated, when the ground shakes violently beneath the sea, a tsunami may not be far behind. These unstoppable walls of water are hardly a surprise when they happen within the so-called ring of fire that encompasses the Pacific basin but in the more tectonically benign North Atlantic their manifestation could reasonably be regarded as a bit of a shock. Nonetheless, there is plenty of good, hard evidence that this was the case during post-glacial times. Trapped within the thick layers of peat that pass for soil on Shetland – the UK's northernmost outpost – are intrusions of sand that testify to the inland penetration of three tsunamis during the last 10,000 years.

Volcanic blasts too can be added to the portfolio of postglacial geological pandemonium; the warming climate being greeted by an unprecedented fiery outburst that wracked Iceland as its frozen carapace dwindled, and against which the recent ashy ejaculation from the island's most unpronounceable volcano pales.

The huge environmental changes that accompanied the rapid post-glacial warming of our world were not confined to the top and bottom of the planet. All that meltwater had to go somewhere, and as the ice sheets dwindled, so the oceans grew. An astounding 52m cubic kilometres of water was sucked from the oceans to form the ice sheets, causing sea levels to plummet by about 130 metres – the height of the Wembley stadium arch. As the ice sheets melted so this gigantic volume of water was returned, bending the crust around the margins of the ocean basins under the enormous added weight, and provoking volcanoes in the vicinity to erupt and faults to rupture, bringing geological mayhem to regions remote from the ice's polar fastnesses.

The breathtaking response of the geosphere as the great ice sheets crumbled might be considered as providing little more than an intriguing insight into the prehistoric workings of our world, were it not for the fact that our planet is once again in the throes an extraordinary climatic transformation – this time brought about by human activities. Clearly, the Earth of the early 21st century bears little resemblance to the frozen world of 20,000 years ago. Today, there are no great continental ice sheets to dispose of, while the ocean basins are already pretty much topped up. On the other hand, climate change projections repeatedly support the thesis that global average temperatures could rise at least as rapidly in the course of the next century or so as during post-glacial times, reaching levels at high latitudes capable of driving catastrophic breakup of polar ice sheets as thick as those that once covered much of Europe and North America. Could it be then, that if we continue to allow greenhouse gas emissions to rise unchecked and fuel serious warming, our planet's crust will begin to toss and turn once again?

The signs are that this is already happening. In the detached US state of Alaska, where climate change has propelled temperatures upwards by more than 3C in the last half century, the glaciers are melting at a staggering rate, some losing up to 1km in thickness in the last 100 years. The reduction in weight on the crust beneath is allowing faults contained therein to slide more easily, promoting increased earthquake activity in recent decades. The permafrost that helps hold the state's mountain peaks together is also thawing rapidly, leading to a rise in the number of giant rock and ice avalanches. In fact, in mountainous areas around the world, landslide activity is on the up; a reaction both to a general ramping-up of global temperatures and to the increasingly frequent summer heatwaves.

Whether or not Alaska proves to be the "canary in the cage" – the geological shenanigans there heralding far worse to come – depends largely upon the degree to which we are successful in reducing the ballooning greenhouse gas burden arising from our civilisation's increasingly polluting activities, thereby keeping rising global temperatures to a couple of degrees centigrade at most. So far, it has to be said, there is little cause for optimism, emissions rocketing by almost 6% in 2010 when the world economy continued to bump along the bottom. Furthermore, the failure to make any real progress on emissions control at last December's Durban climate conference ensures that the outlook is bleak. Our response to accelerating climate change continues to be consistently asymmetric, in the sense that it is far below the level that the science says is needed if we are to have any chance of avoiding the all-pervasive devastating consequences.

So what – geologically speaking – can we look forward to if we continue to pump out greenhouse gases at the current hell-for-leather rate? With resulting global average temperatures likely to be several degrees higher by this century's end, we could almost certainly say an eventual goodbye to the Greenland ice sheet, and probably that covering West Antarctica too, committing us – ultimately – to a 10-metre or more hike in sea levels.

GPS measurements reveal that the crust beneath the Greenland ice sheet is already rebounding in response to rapid melting, providing the potential – according to researchers – for future earthquakes, as faults beneath the ice are relieved of their confining load. The possibility exists that these could trigger submarine landslides spawning tsunamis capable of threatening North Atlantic coastlines. Eastern Iceland is bouncing back too as its Vatnajökull ice cap fades away. When and if it vanishes entirely, new research predicts a lively response from the volcanoes currently residing beneath. A dramatic elevation in landslide activity would be inevitable in the Andes, Himalayas, European Alps and elsewhere, as the ice and permafrost that sustains many mountain faces melts and thaws.

Across the world, as sea levels climb remorselessly, the load-related bending of the crust around the margins of the ocean basins might – in time – act to sufficiently "unclamp" coastal faults such as California's San Andreas, allowing them to move more easily; at the same time acting to squeeze magma out of susceptible volcanoes that are primed and ready to blow.

The bottom line is that through our climate-changing activities we are loading the dice in favour of escalating geological havoc at a time when we can most do without it. Unless there is a dramatic and completely unexpected turnaround in the way in which the human race manages itself and the planet, then long-term prospects for our civilisation look increasingly grim. At a time when an additional 220,000 people are lining up at the global soup kitchen each and every night; when energy, water and food resources are coming under ever-growing pressure, and when the debilitating effects of anthropogenic climate change are insinuating themselves increasingly into every nook and cranny of our world and our lives, the last thing we need is for the dozing subterranean giant to awaken.

Bill McGuire is professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London. Waking the Giant: How a Changing Climate Triggers Earthquakes, Tsunamis and Volcanoes is published by Oxford University Press.

Shrinking Arctic ice linked to record dumps of snow

Adam Morton 

The Age, February 28, 2012  

A DRAMATIC decline in Arctic sea ice linked to global warming is likely to have triggered record snow dumps in the northern hemisphere in recent winters, a study has found.

American and Chinese scientists found the drop in autumn Arctic sea ice - down by nearly a third since 1979 - caused changes in atmospheric circulation that contributed to freezing winters in China in 2007-08 and the US and Europe between 2009 and 2011.

In each case, large areas were hit by heavy snow, icy rain and cold temperatures that disrupted transport and energy supplies and damaged agriculture.

Study lead author Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology, said the diminished Arctic ice cover led to weaker than usual westerly winds blowing across the Atlantic Ocean from Canada to Europe. ''It has made it easier for the cold Arctic air mass getting into mid and low-latitudes,'' he told The Age. 

Published in US journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study also found the drop in sea ice and increase in open water had boosted the amount of moisture transferred from ocean to atmosphere, effectively giving it more snow to dump. ''If the Arctic sea ice continues to decline, probably we will see more consistent snow storms in the northern continents,'' Dr Liu said.

The decline in Arctic sea ice has outpaced climate models. The past five northern summers have been the five lowest for sea ice cover since satellite data was first collected in the 1970s - a reflection that Arctic temperatures have risen nearly twice as fast as the global average.

A US National Centre for Atmospheric Research computer simulation study recently estimated that about half of the ice loss between 1979 and 2005 was due to human greenhouse gas emissions and half natural variability.

Dr Liu said the study linking sea ice cover and extreme winter weather drew on both observational data and computer models that factored in snow cover, sea level pressure, surface air temperature and humidity.

He said the findings may help forecasting of snow and temperature anomalies.

US National Snow and Ice Data Centre director Mark Serreze has said that reports and aircraft reconnaissance indicated the recent summer sea ice levels were the lowest since 1900.

Analyses of ancient material have suggested it was likely to be at the lowest level since the end of the last glacial period about 8000 years ago.

The Arctic was ice free in the interglacial period about 125,000 years ago.

amorton@theage.com.au

Earth's energy imbalance

Hansen et al. 2011

Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, and K. von Schuckmann, 2011: Earth's energy imbalance and implications. Atmos. Chem. Phys.,11, 13421-13449, doi:10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011.

Improving observations of ocean heat content show that Earth is absorbing more energy from the Sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. 

The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.58±0.15 W/m² during the 6-yr period 2005-2010, confirms the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change. Observed surface temperature change and ocean heat gain together constrain the net climate forcing and ocean mixing rates. 

We conclude that most climate models mix heat too efficiently into the deep ocean and as a result underestimate the negative forcing by human-made aerosols. Aerosol climate forcing today is inferred to be -1.6±0.3 W/m², implying substantial aerosol indirect climate forcing via cloud changes. 

Continued failure to quantify the specific origins of this large forcing is untenable, as knowledge of changing aerosol effects is needed to understand future climate change. 

We conclude that recent slowdown of ocean heat uptake was caused by a delayed rebound effect from Mount Pinatubo aerosols and a deep prolonged solar minimum. Observed sea level rise during the Argo float era is readily accounted for by ice melt and ocean thermal expansion, but the ascendency of ice melt leads us to anticipate acceleration of the rate of sea level rise this decade.

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World running out of resources: UN

Jill Colgan in Washington 

ABC News Online, January 31, 2012

See also - Ban calls for action to chart more sustainable future

A major United Nations report has called for a sustainable "evergreen revolution", warning that time is running out to ensure there is enough food, water and fuel to meet the needs of the world's rapidly growing population.

In a grim warning about the earth's increasing demand for resources, a panel led by the presidents of Finland and South Africa found demand will grow exponentially as the global population rises from 7 billion people to an expected 9 billion by 2040.

Within the next 20 years the world's population will need 50 per cent more food and vast new reserves of energy and water, according to UN estimates.

The report warns a failure to secure resources will condemn up to 3 billion people to poverty.

Billed as a blueprint for sustainability, the report urges governments to embrace green energy technologies and cut back on the use of non-renewable resources.

Its authors have urged governments to tackle sustainable development with a greater sense of urgency and political will.

"The current global development model is unsustainable. To achieve sustainability, a transformation of the global economy is required," the report said.

"Tinkering on the margins will not do the job. The current global economic crisis ... offers an opportunity for significant reforms."

Flooding rated as worst climate change threat facing UK

Defra report lists 700 impacts, including flood risk for 3.6 million people, water shortages, soil erosion and wildlife disruption

• Climate change: threats and opportunities to the UK - graphic

Juliette Jowit,

The Guardian,   Thursday 26 January 2012

Flooding is the greatest threat to the UK posed by climate change, with up to 3.6 million people at risk by the middle of the century, according to a report published on Thursday by the environment department.

The first comprehensive climate change risk assessment for the UK identifies hundreds of ways rising global temperatures will have an impact if no action is taken. They include the financial damage caused by flooding, which would increase to £2bn-£10bn a year by 2080, more deaths in heatwaves, and large-scale water shortages by mid-century.

Unusually for such documents, it also highlighted ways in which the country could benefit from milder winters and drier summers, such as fewer cold-related deaths, better wheat crops and a more attractive climate for tourists.

"If you had to pick one particular issue I think the flooding issue is the most dominant," said Sir Bob Watson, chief scientist at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Lord John Krebs, chairman of the adaptation committee of the independent advisory group Committee on Climate Change, said that without planning and investment to deal with the threats the UK would "sleepwalk into disaster". The benefits of climate change should also not be taken as reason to stop worrying about it, even with policies to reduce the threats, said Krebs: "Whether it will result in a net benefit we simply can't tell."

Scientists and other experts, led by Defra, identified 700 impacts of climate change in the UK, including the possibility of refugees arriving from wars over dwindling water and food.

High-impact events expected by mid-century included decreased forestation caused by red band needle blight, shortages in public water supply (especially in the north, Midlands and south of England), and worse water quality.

The assessors selected the 100 most pressing threats and opportunities and rated these according to their impact, the confidence of the modellers, and how soon the threats might occur. All the report's forecasts assume no governmental action to reduce or remove the threats.

The four most immediate "high consequence" risks all concerned flooding, with the expectation that in 10 years or so there will be increased flood damage to homes, with knock-on effects on insurance premiums and mental health.

Between 1.7 million and 3.6 million people are expected to be at risk of flooding by 2050, without investment to lessen the threat.

Surface water flooding would be likely to get worse, Watson added.

Other issues highlighted by the report include changes in wildlife migration, alterations in species communities as plants and animals fail to move fast enough to thrive, sewer overflows polluting the coast, changes in the soil, erosion from heavier rains, loss of staff working-time from heat stress, changes in fish stocks, and wildfires in drier summers.

The findings follow controversy over cuts to the UK flood defence budget.

However, Caroline Spelman, the environment secretary, said the report justified the department's decision to ask for more capital and fewer revenue funds from the Treasury, and said government money would be supplemented by contributions from local communities.

"[Comparing] the last four years of the Labour government and the first four years of this government there will be a reduction of 6% … but you can get more homes protected for the same amount of money," said Spelman.

The report was widely welcomed as a way to help government departments, businesses and councils plan ahead.

But Mary Creagh, the shadow environment secretary, said: "In 2010 Labour invested £354m in protecting homes from flooding, which has been cut by 27% to £259m a year for the next four years under this government.

"Ministers are playing Russian roulette with people's homes and businesses by cutting too far, too fast, and could leave communities blighted, with homeowners unable to insure, mortgage or sell their homes after 2013, when Labour's deal with the insurance industry runs out."

It will be seized upon by lobbyists to argue for spending priorities, and used by government to prepare the national adaptation plan, due to be published next year.

Julian Hunt, emeritus professor of climate modelling, at University College London, said the report's finding that there would be longer periods of "static weather" and cloud cover, could threaten energy from solar and wind sources .

"This leads to dangerous urban heat island temperatures and droughts. But it also indicates the danger of lengthy, very low, wind conditions, or cloudy conditions – so low-carbon energy alternatives to wind and solar are essential," said Hunt.

Peter Mallaburn, reader in climate policy at De Montfort University, said the need to save energy was in conflict with government policies not pushing for higher energy efficiency standards for commercial buildings.

"This report says, for the first time, that not only are our homes and offices leaky, but that they will start to overheat in a warmer world," said Mallaburn. "We need a coherent strategy to sort out this mess. Let's hope that this report acts as a wake-up call."

A website has been set up asking for the public's views on the national adaptation programme.

Climate warming would cause loss of life

 The Age, January 17, 2012 

A global temperature rise of two degrees by 2050 would result in increased loss of life, a new Australian study has found.

Scientists from the Queensland University of Technology and the CSIRO say they have conducted world-first research which looks at the "years of life lost" due to climate change.

They focused on the city of Brisbane, which has a subtropical climate.

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"A two-degree increase in temperature in Brisbane between now and 2050 would result in an extra 381 years of life lost per year in Brisbane," lead 

researcher Associate Professor Adrian Barnett, from the university's Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, said in a statement.

"A two-degree increase in temperature is the figure in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says is dangerous, but could be reached unless more aggressive measures are undertaken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

Professor Barnett said an increase of more than two degrees would be catastrophic.

"A four-degree increase in temperature would result in an extra 3242 years of life lost per year in Brisbane."

Professor Barnett said the "years of life lost" measurement gives greater weight to deaths at younger ages instead of focusing just on elderly people.

"We wanted to use years of life lost because we suspected that many temperature-related deaths were in the elderly, which would reduce the public health importance of temperature compared with other issues," he said.

"In fact, we found the opposite, with a surprisingly high years of life lost figure."

Interestingly, the study found that a one-degree increase would result in a decrease in the number of lives lost.

This is believed to be because the increase in heat-related years of life lost are offset by the decrease in cold-related years of life lost. The researchers said cold-related deaths are significant, even in a city with Brisbane's warm climate.

And many deaths could be avoided if people have better insulation in their houses.

"Many houses in Brisbane are built of thin planks of wood and are poorly insulated, which means the occupants are exposed to whatever the temperature is outside," Professor Barnett said.

The researchers believe that while their work was focused on Brisbane, it contains helpful information to decision-makers in other areas as well.

The study has been published in the journal Nature Climate Change.