Monday, January 25, 2010

Scientists 'losing climate fight'

ABC News Online, Posted Mon Jan 25, 2010


A leading Australian climate change scientist says experts are losing the fight against sceptics, who are distorting the science of global warming.
His comments come as a prominent British climate change sceptic tours the country.
Lord Christopher Monckton has arrived in Australia for a series of lectures and is calling for a royal commission into the science around global warming.
The former journalist and political adviser to Margaret Thatcher says the production of carbon dioxide is not a major problem.
He has attacked the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) after it revised a key finding in its 2007 report which wrongly claimed the Himalayan glaciers would melt by 2035.
But one of the lead authors of the report, Australian Professor Andy Pitman, has defended the overall conclusions of the report.
Professor Pitman was a lead author on the IPCC's 2001 and 2007 reports. He is also the co-director of the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales.
Professor Pitman says sceptics have used the IPCC's error to skew the climate change debate.
"Climate scientists are losing the fight with the sceptics," he said.
"The sceptics are so well funded, so well organised. "They have nothing else to do. They don't have day jobs so they can put all their efforts into misinforming and miscommunicating climate science to the general public, whereas the climate scientists have day jobs and [managing publicity] actually isn't one of them.
"All of the efforts you do in an IPCC report is done out of hours, voluntarily, for no funding and no pay, whereas the sceptics are being funded to put out full-scale misinformation campaigns and are doing a damn good job, I think.
"They are doing a superb job at misinforming and miscommunicating the general public, state and federal governments."
And he says if scientists lose the climate change debate, it would be "potentially catastrophic".
"If this was academic debate over some trivial issue [it wouldn't matter]," he said.
"But this isn't. This is absolutely a fundamental problem for the Earth that we desperately needed full-scale international action on a decade ago.
"We are now 10 years too late to stop some of the major impacts that we will see and have seen as a consequence of global warming. It is not a future problem, it is a problem here today, around us."
Professor Pitman has accused sceptics of failing to base their arguments on the facts.
"Most of the climate sceptics, particularly those that are wandering around publicly at the moment, don't base their arguments on science," he said.
"They have probably never read the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report; they aren't writing papers in peer-reviewed literature.
"They don't update their arguments when their arguments are shown to be false, so they'll have no problem at all using this ammunition inappropriately and out of context to further their aims in exactly the same way as people did when they were trying to disprove the relationship between smoking and human health."

Defending the IPCC

Professor Pitman has also played down the significance of the error in the IPCC's report.
"There are two paragraphs that have been questioned in a 1600-page document," he said.
"After two years, people have been going over that report with considerable care and have found a couple of errors of fact in a 1600-page document.
"I mean, we ought to be talking about the other 1599 pages that no one has found any problems with."
Professor Pitman says he has no concerns about the IPCC's reviewing process.
"We should be very clear on what the IPCC does. It writes a report that is fully open to external review. [Anybody] can each read over individual sections of the report and send in credible comments," he said.
"So each government tries to pore over each of the statements to find fault with them and at the end of that process, future drafts are produced, again with opportunities for external examination and feedback.
"And you end up with a final report, which in this case some people have found one or two errors with after two years.
"I reckon that is a standard that most organisations would absolutely celebrate."

Regulatory vacuum threatens forestry carbon offsets

RUTH WILLIAMS
The Age, January 26, 2010
Other related stories - 
When Melbourne company Greenfleet won the right to display the Federal Government's Greenhouse Friendly logo in early 2008, the non-profit tree-planting organisation was congratulated by the Climate Change Minister, Penny Wong.
"Greenfleet's biodiversity forest projects will not only result in a reduction of greenhouse gases, they will also provide valuable habitat for native fauna and assist in the regeneration of the Australian landscape," Senator Wong said.
Greenfleet was the first non-profit organisation to achieve Greenhouse Friendly accreditation as an ''approved abatement provider'', a title it won after a long and expensive process, its chief executive, Sara Gipton, says.
However, for an operation trading in Australia's fledgling voluntary carbon offsets market, one that relies on its reputation to convince supporters to buy its offsets, the credibility bestowed by Federal Government accreditation was worth the time and expense.
But a year after Greenfleet was accredited, Senator Wong announced that the Greenhouse Friendly program would be dumped. It would be superseded by the Government's centrepiece green policy, the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme and replaced by a new national carbon offset standard.
It has meant Greenfleet's return on its substantial investment in Greenhouse Friendly is much less than it should have been. But that is not its only problem.
Under the Government's timetable, Greenhouse Friendly will cease to exist on June 30, at which point the carbon offset standard, which was released with little fanfare at the start of December, will come into force. The standard is designed to complement the reduction scheme, but it is uncertain whether the scheme will be passed by Parliament by June 30.
No scheme means no carbon offset standard and no Greenhouse Friendly - a situation that creates a regulatory vacuum for Greenfleet and its peers.
Meanwhile, regulations governing forestry are unlikely to be released until after the scheme's legislation is put to the Senate next week. So when Greenhouse Friendly goes, so will any national, Government-backed method of accrediting forestry carbon offsets.
''At the moment we have massive regulatory uncertainty,'' Ms Gipton says. ''If the legislation doesn't pass, and Greenhouse Friendly is still being shut down on the 30th of June, we have a problem because we don't have a standard which we can tell our supporters, with certainty, that we operate to. It's very important that we have that; people want to be assured that we are operating credibly.''
But the regulatory tangle doesn't end there. Greenfleet offsets emissions with forestry, an abatement method covered by the Kyoto protocol. Were Greenfleet to do nothing, its forestry projects would be lumped in as counting towards Australia's overall emission reduction target - its so-called cap.
This means there would be less incentive for Greenfleet's supporters to offset their emissions, because the offsets generated would not be ''additional'' to the emission cuts Australia has committed to. In effect, they would simply be aiding the pollution of big emitters.
The solution is for Greenfleet to ''opt in'' to the scheme and ''retire'' its permits on a yet-to-be-established registry so they cannot be counted towards the national target and can be considered truly additional. This is Greenfleet's plan. But, unfortunately, Greenfleet can't participate in something that doesn't exist.
The conundrum is an example of how the Government's repeatedly delayed reduction scheme has created confusion among participants in the voluntary carbon market.
'Regardless of what happens in Canberra, Greenfleet will continue to plant trees, and those trees will continue to pull carbon dioxide from the air no matter what form of scheme passes Parliament - if one passes..
''The longer we wait on climate change, the harder the task, and climate change… isn't going to wait for a political solution.'' Ms Gipton says.
A spokeswoman for Senator Wong said: ''The Government is working through the implementation of the national carbon offset standard with stakeholders.''

Green fades in the wash

MATHEW MURPHY AND RUTH WILLIAMS
The Age, January 26, 2010
IT WAS consumer group Choice that first suspected GreenPower provider GreenSwitch was still selling renewable energy to eco-conscious customers in late 2008, weeks after it had been deregistered.
GreenSwitch, owned by a company called Global Green Plan, had been banned in September 2008 after taking money from customers to buy GreenPower certificates, but failing to buy all the certificates promised.
Sure enough, Choice was able to buy renewable energy from GreenSwitch in November, and says that, at the time, GreenSwitch's website was still spruiking ''100% accredited GreenPower''.
Choice took its evidence to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, which promptly made an example of the former GreenPower provider, ordering it to buy all the renewable energy certificates (known as RECs) that it had failed to purchase on behalf of its customers.
It was the third GreenPower retailer in two years to be targeted by the consumer watchdog, which is fielding a rising number of complaints about green-branded products.
''It's coming up particularly in relation to power companies,'' says Graeme Samuel, chairman of the ACCC, who says people are often keen to speak to him about GreenPower - even at social gatherings. ''They are paying a small premium on their power bill to get the green advantage, and they ask me, 'Is it for real? Is it genuine?'
''I said that we weren't sure at the moment.''
Choice uncovered GreenSwitch's actions as part of a broader investigation into GreenPower, an accreditation program for renewable energy run by six state governments.
GreenPower audits energy retailers' sales and purchases to make sure they are buying and selling the renewable energy promised and adhere to the ''highest environmental standards''.
Just as well, given the purchase of GreenPower, as with many other green-tinted transactions, hinges on trust and credibility. Accreditation is the only thing differentiating the conscientious operators from the cowboys.
GreenPower discovered that GreenSwitch's buying and selling of green energy credits didn't add up, and suspended it as a result. But, disturbingly, no one noticed that the banned operator was still selling GreenPower from its website. It was left to Choice to expose the problem.
Choice senior policy adviser Kate Norris says consumers are often hamstrung in determining the authenticity of green promises. ''The real problem in this market is that consumers can't verify these claims themselves,'' she says. ''The regulator should be better resourced so it can deal with it and there should be standards that are required to be met.''
In early 2008, BusinessDay investigated the new green economy of carbon offsets, carbon audits, green claims in advertising and the wider world of ''greenwashing'', finding clear regulatory shortfalls and many questionable claims.
Back then, the so-called ''carbon cowboys'' threatened the credibility of the offset market. Many claim such operators have left the industry, but evidence suggests that the green economy remains pocked with regulatory holes.
Efforts to boost the credibility and transparency of the voluntary carbon offset market appear to have been hampered rather than helped by the Rudd Government, which industry experts believe has been so consumed by its carbon pollution reduction scheme that it has fumbled and lagged on other crucial environmental reforms.
Consumers, meanwhile, are growing more confused and cynical about green claims.
It is a worrying situation for a government that rose to power promising ''decisive action'' on climate change. But it also has ramifications for the fight against climate change. If climate change is, as British economist Nicholas Stern declared, the biggest market failure in history, it stands to reason that market forces - especially the awesome power of the consumer - are the best tools with which to fight the problem. But consumers won't buy what they cannot trust.
This is particularly the case with the voluntary carbon offsets market, which allows consumers and businesses to pay for measures - such as tree planting or energy efficiency projects - to offset their emissions.
As with GreenPower, an offset cannot be seen or touched, meaning that accreditation and regulation is doubly important. The problem is, however, that much of the voluntary carbon market is in a state of regulatory flux.
The Government's decision to kill its Greenhouse Friendly accreditation program, its delivery of a national carbon offset standard almost a year late and its initial failure to deem voluntary carbon offsets as ''additional'' to Australia's Kyoto target have all made life difficult for the industry.
This last issue of so-called ''additionality'' in the CPRS - which would have resulted in eco-conscious consumers effectively subsidising big polluters - was fixed by amendments put forward by fallen opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull late last year, and the Government has pledged to honour them when it reintroduces the legislation next week.
But some operators, such as Melbourne non-profit Greenfleet, are still facing a regulatory vacuum if the Greenhouse Friendly accreditation program expires before the CPRS is in place.
For an operation that relies on its accreditation to reassure supporters of its credentials, it is a difficult situation.
''Credibility is everything for carbon offsets,'' says Dr Iain MacGill, from the University of NSW's Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets. ''You are asking people to voluntarily pay money to achieve an environmental outcome that wouldn't have happened otherwise. If there's questions about the credibility of that environmental outcome, obviously the market is at risk, and it should be at risk.''
The Government's efforts to regulate the carbon offset market hinge on its national carbon offset standard, meant to come into effect on July 1, the day after Greenhouse Friendly expires. Greenhouse Friendly was the closest thing Australia had to a universal label for offsets.
The standard was an election promise made by Labor in June 2007, when the then Opposition leader Kevin Rudd and shadow environment minister Peter Garrett promised to protect Australians from the ''green shoe brigade''.
They promised to deliver the standard by the end of 2008, a promise reiterated early that year by new Climate Change Minister Penny Wong. It was finally published online on December 1, 2009.
Some say the new standard raises more questions than it answers. ''We don't think the national standard is entirely adequate,'' says Jeff Angel, from the Total Environment Centre, a long-time advocate of more transparency in the offsets market. The TEC launched its own Carbon Offset Watch almost two years ago, and is planning a follow-up. ''I don't think it's likely that we will accept the national standard as the last word.''
Caroline Bayliss, director of RMIT's Global Sustainability Unit, points to multiple problems with the standard. ''It doesn't actually say in detail what you need to do - it just says you need to have a carbon management strategy … It's pretty darn confusing,'' she says.
Peter Shuey, a director of Ark Climate, a provider of GreenPower and government accredited carbon offsets, describes the standard as ''a very unfortunate document''.
He is particularly critical of its failure to require providers to be audited; the Carbon Offset Guide, published by EPA Victoria and RMIT, shows that only six out of the 85 offset providers in the market submit to voluntary audits.
''In the area of offsets, it is a complete lay down misere in terms of scams, because no one is doing any audits,'' Shuey says.
Nor are many operators disclosing sales figures, even on assurance of confidentiality. For this reason the size of the market is difficult to measure - the most recent and oft-cited figure of $44 million dates from 2006-07.
Another issue is the difficulty of ensuring credits are not double-sold.
''There is no guarantee for the customer that their purchased offset is retired, which is a major flaw in the system,'' Shuey says. ''If you want to scam, you could buy 50,000 offsets and (only) retire 5000.''
Shuey says scams remained depressingly easy to work up. ''It is the problem with an immature market,'' he says. ''There are people out there getting offsets for, say, $12 and selling them for $24. We sell GreenPower for about $40 and we get the certificates for about $35.
''But I know retailers who are selling them for about $60.'' He adds, however, that ''it is a little sanctimonious'' to protest at such mark-ups when no one in the industry is making huge profits.
Bayliss, who is also a board member of the Voluntary Carbon Markets Association, says the voluntary offset market was at risk of alienating consumers unless it increased transparency around how much money went to offset providers and how much into the actual offset.
''I think the market will get to a point where it will be like all those donations people were making to charities like World Vision,'' she said. ''Eventually there will be a point where we can say 'this is the typical price for a forestry offset domestically and internationally'. Then the consumer will start asking … like they did with World Vision, 'how much is going to Sierra Leone and my family and how much is going to your admin costs?' ''
Bayliss says that the voluntary actions - such as the purchase of offsets by households and business - can ''absolutely'' make a difference in the climate change battle. But she fears that confusion surrounding the CPRS may discourage consumers from engaging.
A national survey of more than 2000 people completed by consultants Mobium Group, released last month, found that Australians were more suspicious about environmental claims than ever, and that a lack of information to support green claims was deterring people from buying green products.
Almost 70 per cent of those surveyed said trust was a key barrier to buying environmentally preferable products and services, up from an average of 55 per cent over the past three years. Nearly 90 per cent were doubtful of green claims, compared with 84 per cent previously.
Slightly more than 80 per cent of those surveyed said a universal label (such as the energy rating label on whitegoods, which has 95 per cent recognition) would be ''helpful'' in choosing products based on environmental criteria - an area where Government leadership could make a difference.
''The ability of the Government to provide certainty is really important,'' says MacGill. ''It's very likely that because of the CPRS, they have dropped the ball a bit on other important policy issues - not just offsets, but energy efficiency, renewable energy and other areas.''
Labor came to power in 2007 promising ''decisive action'' on climate change. But as the next election looms, its green credentials are wilting. The voluntary carbon market represents a big regulatory challenge, but it is a challenge the Government must meet if it is sincere in its efforts to combat climate change.

Friday, January 22, 2010

A distraction of Himalayan proportions

A claim that the mountain glaciers of the Himalayas will vanish by 2035 has been debunked. Climate-change sceptics are jubilant. They shouldn't be, says Steve Connor. Their disappearance is still only a matter of time

The Independent, Saturday, 23 January 2010



http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/a-distraction-of-himalayan-proportions-1876420.html

It was one of the most startling predictions in climate science. By 2035 the great glaciers of the Himalayas were supposed to have largely disappeared, threatening the water supplies of tens of millions of people who rely on the ice to feed the great rivers of Asia, from the Indus and the Ganges in the west to the Brahmaputra and the Yangtze in the east.

But the prediction, made by the Nobel Prize-winning body charged with overseeing global climate science, also managed to astonish the scientists who actually knew about Himalayan glaciers. For them, the 2035 timeframe meant that the great slabs of ice sitting on top of these mountains, some of which are hundreds of metres thick, must be melting about 25 times faster than expected – an extraordinary claim.

In science, extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence, but in this case the "evidence" turned out to be to be non-existent, which is why the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had to admit this week that, on this occasion, its "well-established standards" of assessing the value of scientific information had failed in relation to the 2035 prediction. The Himalayan glaciers are still melting but not so fast that they are likely to have disappeared by 2035, the panel said.

The error, made by the authors of the IPCC fourth assessment report published in 2007, was to rely on so-called "grey literature" rather than peer-reviewed scientific journals where evidence is double-checked by other experts before publication. But this was only half the story; it is clear the authors made mistakes of their own that compounded the problem.

It began with a news story published in an Indian publication, Down to Earth, in April 1999. It quoted an Indian scientist, Syed Iqbal Hasnain, then vice chancellor of Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, who said the Himalayan glaciers were receding faster than glaciers in any other part of the world, and if the rate continued they would be gone by 2035.

The story also quoted a respected glaciologist called Vladimir Kotlyakov of the Russian Academy of Scientists, who appeared to back up Hasnain's claim with the quote: "The glacier will be decaying at rapid, catastrophic rates. Its total area will shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 square km by the year 2035." (In fact, Kotlyakov was seriously misquoted, but more of this later.)

These claims may not have gone much further had the story not been read by Fred Pearce, a highly experienced and respected environment journalist. Pearce contacted Hasnain to verify his position and, satisfied that the scientist was not misquoted, wrote a version of the story for New Scientist. Hasnain has since told Pearce the claim was "speculative.

Again, the 2035 timeframe may not have emerged from the magazine's archives had it not been recycled in a 2005 report by the environmental body WWF, formerly the World Wildlife Fund. It claimed that the 2035 figure came from the semi-official International Commission for Snow and Ice, written by Hasnain, but it turned out that this commission had never included that timeframe in its reports.

It subsequently turned out that the WWF report, and the 2035 claim, had been based on Pearce's story in New Scientist, and, indirectly, the Down to Earth article of the same year. This was grey literature at its secondhand greyest – a non-peer reviewed report based on another non-peer-reviewed report.

Matters became even greyer when the IPCC began writing up its section on Himalayan glaciers for its fourth assessment report published in 2007. The authors were part of IPCC Working Group II, which is involved in assessing the "impacts" of climate change. Interestingly, it is Working Group I, which is responsible for the science of climate change, which actually has the expertise on glaciers and yet its own report included no mention of the 2035 timeframe.

However, the Working Group II report was quite unequivocal in its statement: "Glaciers in the Himalaya [sic] are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the Earth keeps warming at the current rate. Its total area will likely shrink from the present 500,000 to 100,000 square km by the year 2035."

It included a reference to the 2005 WWF report to support the statement, but only after expert reviewers had questioned the claim during the drafting of the report. Nevertheless, the phrasing is almost identical to Down to Earth's, including the reference to Kotlyakov's glacial shrinkage.

In fact, anyone with a knowledge of the total surface area of Himalayan glaciers would have known that Kotlyakov was not referring to the shrinking of Himalayan glaciers, but to the shrinking of all mountain glaciers, outside the polar regions. More importantly his report, seriously misquoted by Down to Earth, said this shrinkage will occur by 2350 – not 2035.

To add insult to injury, the table of Himalayan glaciers used by the IPCC to back up its statement contains a serious mathematical error, first identified by Professor John Nielsen-Gammon of Texas A&M University. One of the Himalayan glaciers is listed as retreating by 2,840 metres between 1845 and 1966, which is 23 metres per year. Yet the IPCC's report lists it as retreating by 135 metres per year. Whoever did the calculation within the IPCC had divided the total glacier retreat by 21 years, not 121.

It would be easy to condemn the IPCC for these lapses but it must be remembered that the organisation is essentially composed of working scientists and it was the science community that identified and exposed the errors. The 2035 claim was not mentioned in the IPCC's "summary for policymakers" so was not presented as one of its central arguments.

However, such an astounding claim was bound to receive wider currency and doubts about it were initially rejected in the higher echelons of the IPCC. Yet it was through the dogged investigation of ordinary climate scientists that the truth emerged. Professor Graham Cogley of Trent University in Ontario traced the 2035 timeframe back to the 1999 news story in New Scientist and had alerted Pearce.

Professor Cogley said that once the IPCC had been presented with the detailed critique of the 2035 claim, it had moved swiftly to admit the error and make the correction. However, the head of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, when he was confronted over the 2035 claim last year, denounced those questioning his body's research as "voodoo scientists".

Professor Cogley said: "In Working Group I the guidelines are pretty clear about not relying on grey literature unless absolutely necessary. But in Working Group II that rule is more relaxed. As far as the public perception goes, a good question to ask is how many minds will change [ due to this debacle]? The climate sceptics will continue being sceptics. The reality in the Himalayas is bad enough without exaggerating it. The glaciers are losing mass and we are fairly sure they are losing mass faster now than a few years ago. We also know the Himalayan glacier water could become a non-renewable resource," he said.

Professor Jeffrey Kargel, an expert on Himalayan glaciers at the US Geological Survey, who was also involved in exposing the error, said that overall the IPCC's fourth report on climate change impacts was otherwise "very solid and very accurate".

"There is indeed a consensus that the glaciers in the Himalayas, as in other parts of the world, are retreating relatively quickly," Professor Kargel said. While most glaciers in the chain are in retreat, others appear stable and a few seem to be advancing because of heavier snowfall – which is not inconsistent with warmer temperatures. The Karakoram mountains in the east, which accumulate snow in the wetter summer period of the monsoon, are particularly vulnerable to small changes in average temperature, which can quickly turn annual snowfall into annual rain.

The 2035 timeframe may be discredited, but that doesn't mean that there is not a problem. Increasingly, this century, the gradual loss of the Himalayan glaciers are likely to impinge on the reliability of the water supply of people living in the the lower alpine valleys of the mountains.

Professor Kargel said: "When sceptics talk of 'glaciergate', it hurts. That word suggests an elaborate conspiracy when there isn't. This is a self-correcting system, that's what happened, that's what science is."

Icing over the facts

BEN CUBBY
The Age, January 23, 2010
The war on science took an absurd turn this week, writes Ben Cubby.

To stand near the snout of a glacier is to take a glimpse of geological time grinding forward on its non-human scale. The vast mass of compressed ice crushes everything in its path to gravel, but it does so with invisible slowness, mostly creeping back and forth at the rate of a few metres a year.
The consensus position among glaciologists is that most of the world's glaciers are retreating at a startling rate that in many cases can only be explained by the rising temperatures brought about by climate change. It is also true that some glaciers remain static or are growing as a result of regional weather patterns, some of which are also influenced by global warming.
This week saw unprecedented fascination with glacier research, and people who had never before shown the slightest interest in the subject before bombarded universities and research centres with questions.
The flurry of attention was sparked by a front-page story in The Sunday Times in London, reprinted the next day in some Australian newspapers, which pointed out that a mistake about the timing of glacier retreats had crept into one of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's ''working group'' reports. The report said that Himalayan glaciers could be gone or greatly reduced by 2035 - a rate of decline far outstripping other glacier fields around the world.
The error, apparently based on a misreading of the year 2350 as 2035 in a decade-old research study, was in fact fairly well known among glaciologists. The story had been ''discovered'' and publicly discussed at least four times in the three years before The Sunday Times published its exclusive, including a long piece by the BBC last December.
That the error was uncovered by the correct application of the peer-review process, and the consensus view among the experts was shown to be right, made little difference to the media coverage, which focused on the flaws in the IPCC. Amid the uproar, the panel issued a statement on Wednesday conceding that: ''In drafting the paragraph in question, the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures, were not applied properly.''
So, if a dumb mistake like this can slip through, what other errors are lurking in the 3000 pages of the Nobel Prize-winning document?
The only way to check is to comb through the archive of reviewers' comments. It makes for weird and wonderful reading. The offending passage lies nestled among earnest discussion of the flowering times of Japanese apricot trees and the potential for a grass-skiing industry in Asia.
The review process for the IPCC's published work is extensive. Authors develop draft chapters on a particular topic and send them out for checking by a wide variety of other scientists. Reviewers examine the chapters line by line and their comments are chronologically recorded and preserved for public scrutiny like a fossil record of a very long and wandering debate.
Contrary to the view of many climate sceptics, the review process is transparent and open to a wide range of scientists, and some non-scientists. Climate sceptics are, if anything, over-represented in the fact-checking process. Among the hundreds of independent ''expert reviewers'' is the Australian meteorologist William Kininmonth, a sceptic who has been fighting the idea of man-made climate change for many years.
Another reviewer is the prominent British sceptic Christopher Walter Monckton, the Third Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, who arrives in Australia on Monday on a lecture tour with the support of business and mining industry figures, with the purpose of undermining public support for carbon emissions cuts.
Monckton, incidentally, still claims to have won a Nobel Peace Prize for his contribution to the IPCC report, though the Nobel Committee has no record of this.
But if there were a real prize awarded for sceptic diligence, it would surely go to Vincent Gray, a chemist associated with the New Zealand Coal Research Association. Gray logged almost 1900 comments and complaints on the latest report alone, largely on matters of grammar and presentation.
Despite the exquisite pedantry of some of the reviewers, the flawed reference to the imminent retreat of Himalayan glaciers that appeared on page 493 of the working group report was picked up during the review process by several scientists with expertise that touched on the field.
It is worth looking in a little more detail at the reviewers' discussion because it hints at the reason for the mistake. Dr David Saltz, a desert researcher at Ben Gurion University in Israel, noticed the discrepancy between a claim that Himalayan glaciers could shrink in size from 500,000 to 100,000 square kilometres in the next three decades, and a later sentence saying that they could disappear. ''100,000? You just said it will disappear,'' he wrote. ''Missed to clarify this one,'' was the author's terse reply.
Another reviewer, the water and climate change specialist Dr Hayley Fowler, of Newcastle University in Britain, logged a lengthy objection beginning ''I am not sure that this is true'' and citing more recent research. ''Was unable to get hold of the suggested references will consider in the final version,'' was the author's response.
Associate Professor Poh Poh Wong, of the National University of Singapore, asked that examples of retreating glaciers from around the world be included if the claim that ''Himalayan glaciers are indeed receding faster'' was to stand. None of the reviewers could be contacted by the Herald to discuss their doubts, but it is clear that red flags were raised over the Himalayan glacier question when the document was being reviewed in August 2006. The review comments make it clear inclusion of the passage in the working group report was an editing error that the authors were given every excuse to delete.
In fact, doubts had already been raised about the claim, first made in 1999 in New Scientist magazine, that the Himalayan glaciers could be gone by 2035. Given that the Himalayas contain trillions of tonnes of compressed ice, it could take almost until 2035 to melt it at room temperature, let alone the freezing conditions at altitude, as several eminent glaciologists have pointed out over the past three years.
It was revisited and dismissed by a report prepared for the Indian Government, and released in charged circumstances late last year, as the nation came under pressure to cut greenhouse gas emissions. The report concluded that, while measurements showed most glaciers had been in retreat for several decades, there was not enough data to draw a conclusive opinion on the cause. This report has since been attacked and contradicted in part by the work of other glaciologists.
The mistaken Himalayan claim did not make the cut in the IPCC's synthesis report, or the ''summary for policymakers'' document which was presented to governments in 2007 as a basis for deciding how to cope with climate change. It was also contradicted by glacier research elsewhere in the IPCC's report, which has not been challenged during the review process or subsequently. That establishes, by verifiable observations made by dozens of agencies and hundreds of research teams, that the ice is indeed melting.
''The general picture is one of widespread retreat, notably in Alaska, Franz-Josef Land, Asia, the Alps, Indonesia and Africa, and tropical and subtropical regions of South America,'' the synthesis report says.
Nevertheless, the IPCC announced this week that it would again review its editing procedure.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

IPCC statement on the melting of Himalayan glaciers1

IPCC Geneva, 20 January 2010

The Synthesis Report, the concluding document of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (page 49) stated: "Climate change is expected to exacerbate current stresses on water resources from population growth and economic and land-use change, including urbanisation. On a regional scale, mountain snow pack, glaciers and small ice caps play a crucial role in freshwater availability. Widespread mass losses from glaciers and reductions in snow cover over recent decades are projected to accelerate throughout the 21st century, reducing water availability, hydropower potential, and changing seasonality of flows in regions supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges (e.g. Hindu-Kush, Himalaya, Andes), where more than one-sixth of the world population currently lives."

This conclusion is robust, appropriate, and entirely consistent with the underlying science and the broader IPCC assessment.

It has, however, recently come to our attention that a paragraph in the 938-page Working Group II contribution to the underlying assessment2 refers to poorly substantiated estimates of rate of recession and date for the disappearance of Himalayan glaciers. In drafting the paragraph in question, the clear and well-established standards of evidence, required by the IPCC procedures, were not applied properly.

The Chair, Vice-Chairs, and Co-chairs of the IPCC regret the poor application of well-established IPCC procedures in this instance. This episode demonstrates that the quality of the assessment depends on absolute adherence to the IPCC standards, including thorough review of "the quality and validity of each source before incorporating results from the source into an IPCC Report" 3. We reaffirm our strong commitment to ensuring this level of performance.

1 This statement is from the Chair and Vice-Chairs of the IPCC, and the Co-Chairs of the IPCC Working Groups.

2 The text in question is the second paragraph in section 10.6.2 of the Working Group II contribution and a repeat of part of the paragraph in Box TS.6. of the Working Group II Technical Summary of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

3 This is verbatim text from Annex 2 of Appendix A to the Principles Governing IPCC Work.