Virtual vote gives you a voice at Copenhagen

By Environment reporter Sarah Clarke

ABC News Online, 4 December 2009

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/12/04/2762091.htm

To Show your vote go to - http://www.showyourvote.org

With three days until the United Nations climate summit kicks off in Copenhagen, internet giant Google has helped launch a new tool to give people a vote on the outcome of the crucial meeting.

The online virtual ballot box is able to collate global statistics on who wants what, and it is an innovation by a man who has made it his personal mission to act on climate change.

Every day Google innovationist Justin Baird pedals to work at the internet giant, where he is thinking big in his global campaign to act on climate change.

"My personal mission is to drive positive change through technology," he said.

"I am in a position where I can understand the issues surrounding climate change. And understanding the technology solution that can empower us to communicate collectively."

His brainchild is called "Show Your Vote". It allows people to register in a virtual ballot box that can be embedded into any website.

The focus of the campaign is to show world leaders in Copenhagen what the people want.

"From your local postcode it aggregates it together to a state level, then country level, then across the world, so what we're doing is generating a global statistic. Over time it starts to generate and show the strength of public support of what's happening," Mr Baird said.

Google has backed it and so has the United Nations.

Earth Hour is also hoping it will deliver a more accurate idea of public support for climate change action.

"It just gives individuals a chance to say 'Yes, I have registered my point of view'," Earth Hour's Andy Ridley said.

Alongside the ballot box are virtual maps showing which country is doing what and which people want change.

Languages are also translated, so international barriers are removed.

Chairman of the Copenhagen Climate Council, Tim Flannery, says the Google tool is an interesting invention.

"I can imagine a day not so long from now where the UN secretary-general is elected through Show Your Vote. It's a very interesting world that we're entering into," he said.

And a world where Mr Baird wants more people to have their say.

Copenhagen failure is planet's best bet: top climate scientist

SUZANNE GOLDENBERG

The Age, December 4, 2009

http://www.theage.com.au/environment/copenhagen-failure-is-planets-best-bet-top-climate-scientist-20091203-k8qy.html

THE scientist who convinced the world to take notice of the looming danger of global warming says it will be better for the planet and for future generations if next week's Copenhagen climate change summit ends in collapse.

James Hansen, the world's pre-eminent climate scientist, said any agreement likely to emerge from the negotiations would be so deeply flawed that it would be better to start again from scratch.

''I would rather it not happen if people accept that as being the right track because it's a disaster track,'' said Dr Hansen, who heads the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in New York. ''The whole approach is so fundamentally wrong that it is better to reassess the situation. If it is going to be the Kyoto-type thing then [people] will spend years trying to determine exactly what that means.''

Dr Hansen, in repeated appearances before Congress beginning in 1989, has done more than any other scientist to educate politicians about the causes of global warming and to prod them into action to avoid its most catastrophic consequences.

But he vehemently opposes the carbon market schemes - in which permits to pollute are bought and sold - which are seen by the European Union and other governments as the most efficient way to cut emissions and move to a new, clean-energy economy.

Dr Hansen is also fiercely critical of Barack Obama - and even Al Gore, who won a Nobel peace prize for his efforts to get the world to act on climate change - saying politicians have failed to meet what he regards as the moral challenge of our age.

In Dr Hansen's view, dealing with climate change allows no room for the compromises that rule the world of elected politics. ''This is analogous to the issue of slavery faced by Abraham Lincoln or the issue of Nazism faced by Winston Churchill,'' he said. ''On those kind of issues you cannot compromise. You can't say: 'Let's reduce slavery; let's find a compromise and reduce it 50 per cent or reduce it 40 per cent.'''

He added: ''We don't have a leader who is able to grasp it and say what is really needed. Instead we are trying to continue business as usual.''

Dr Hansen's journey from climate scientist to activist accelerated in the last years of the Bush administration. A reluctant public speaker, he says he was forced into the public realm by the increasingly clear looming spectre of droughts, floods, famines and drowned cities indicated by the science.

Dr Hansen has emerged as a leading campaigner against the coal industry.

He has irked some environmentalists by espousing a direct carbon tax on fuel use. Some see that as a distraction from rallying support in the US Congress for emissions trading - legislation that is on the table.

He is scathing of that approach. ''This is analogous to the indulgences that the Catholic Church sold in the Middle Ages. The bishops collected lots of money and the sinners got redemption. Both parties liked that arrangement despite its absurdity. That is exactly what's happening.

''We've got the developed countries who want to continue more or less business as usual and then these developing countries who want money, and that is what they can get through offsets.''

Guardian News & Media

Still spinning wheels after three decades

MATTHEW ENGLAND

December 4, 2009

http://www.theage.com.au/environment/still-spinning-wheels-after-three-decades-20091203-k8t4.html

IN 1979 the then US president, Jimmy Carter, commissioned a report on the enhanced greenhouse effect and its implications for energy policy.

The report concluded that humanity "is setting in motion a series of events that seem certain to cause a significant warming of world climates over the next decades unless mitigating steps are taken immediately''.

But there was good news, although it came with a warning: "Enlightened policies in the management of fossil fuels and forests can delay or avoid these changes but the time for implementing the policies is fast passing."

Thirty years on and we have not achieved much in terms of reductions in emissions; in fact we have rapidly increased them: today global emissions are more than 60 per cent higher than in 1979. The predicted warming has come to fruition as well: global average air temperatures have risen almost 0.6 of a degree since 1979. This is a big acceleration in warming on the multi-decade time scales that concern us most: the preceding 70 years had just 0.2 of a degree warming.

Today satellite and ice measurements show Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an accelerating rate. Melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps has also sped up over the past 20 years. Summer Arctic sea ice is melting and thinning well beyond the expectations of climate models of only a few years ago. Global average sea level rise is also occurring well above projections, consistent with a doubling in contribution from the melting of glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets.

To make matters worse, natural carbon buffers appear to be weakening. The oceans and land surface have combined to absorb more than half our post-industrial emissions, yet the ability of these stores to absorb and retain carbon is changing. Fifty years ago natural carbon sinks removed about 600 kilograms of every tonne emitted. Today, only about 550 kilograms are removed.

Scientists often talk about trying to stabilise net greenhouse gases at or below the equivalent of 450 parts per million carbon dioxide. Yet 450 parts per million comes with a 50-50 chance of exceeding 2-degrees warming; a level of warming that would reduce food productivity over key parts of Australia and increase the severity of bushfire seasons and heat waves. Many understandably argue that 350 would be a safer goal. The problem is that we have already exceeded 450 in terms of total greenhouse gases and there's no known way to extract these gases from the atmosphere in large quantities.

If warming stabilises at 3 degrees then the changes become more extreme and the possibility emerges that the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are set on course to gradually disintegrate over the coming centuries, raising sea level by about 10 metres and displacing hundreds of millions of people.

The science is clear that to avoid warming of more than 2 degrees, emissions need to peak within the next 10 years and then fall rapidly. This is becoming increasingly unlikely with every year of delayed action.

Matthew England is professor of ocean physics at the University of NSW.

Gagged CSIRO scientist resigns; calls for inquiry

The Age, December 3, 2009

http://www.theage.com.au/national/gagged-csiro-scientist-resigns-calls-for-inquiry-20091203-k7py.html

Eminent scientist Clive Spashhas resigned from the CSIRO and called for a Senate inquiry into the science body after the censorship of his controversial report into emissions trading.

Dr Spash has lashed out at the organisation, which he says promotes self-censorship among its scientists with its unfair publication guidelines.

He has been stunned at the treatment he's received at the hands of CSIRO management, including boss Megan Clark, and he believes he's not alone.

"I've been treated extremely poorly," he said.

"There needs to be a Senate inquiry.

"The way the publication policy and the charter are being interpreted will encourage self-censorship.

"It's obviously happened before at the CSIRO - and there's issues currently."

Last month, Dr Spash accused the organisation of gagging him and his report - The Brave New World of Carbon Trading - and restricting its publication.

The report is critical of cap and trade schemes, like the one the Rudd government is seeking to introduce, as well as big compensation to polluters.

Dr Spash advocates a direct tax on carbon.

The CSIRO said the report was in breach of its publication guidelines, which restrict scientists from speaking out on public policy.

But it provoked accusations the CSIRO is censoring research harmful to the Government.

Under intense pressure, Dr Clark publicly released the report on November 26 but warned Dr Spash would be punished for his behaviour and his refusal to amend it.

"I believe that internationally peer-reviewed science should be published or, if Dr Clark wishes to have her own opinion, then she should publish her own opinion," said Dr Spash, who has been on sick leave.

"I've been to the doctor under extreme stress.

"I was surprised at senior management and how I was treated."

He had been ordered not to speak to the media while working for the CSIRO, which originally headhunted him for the job.

Dr Spash, who is heading to Europe where he plans to stay indefinitely, was reluctant to openly criticise the Government but noted that Science Minister Kim Carr had been abreast of the situation.

Journal New Political Economy had written to Senator Carr, detailing the changes the CSIRO had demanded and refusing to publish the censored version of the paper.

"They cut the conclusion by half, 11 per cent of the text, changed the thrust of the meaning from being an index criticism of an ETS to being an argument that it stands to be redesigned," Dr Spash said.

"I was clearly censored."

AAP

Logging could boost fire risk: study

BY ROSSLYN BEEBY, SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENT REPORTER

Canberra Times, 03 Dec, 2009

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/logging-could-boost-fire-risk-study/1694837.aspx

You can download the article (and others) here - http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/search/allsearch?mode=quicksearch&products=journal&WISsearch2=1755-263X&WISindexid2=issn&contentTitle=Conservation+Letters&contextLink=blah&contentOID=118902559&WISsearch1=lindenmayer&WISindexid1=WISall&articleGo.x=18&articleGo.y=10

Large-scale logging could increase bushfire risk for Australia's moist mountain ash forests, creating bigger fuel loads and drier, more combustible conditions, new research says.

A world-first study led by Australian National University ecologist Professor David Lindenmayer has found gaps in the forest canopy allow the forest floor to dry out, increasing flammability by as much as 50 per cent in some cases.

The team looked at the impacts of industrial logging in moist forests across the world, including tropical rainforest, North America and Russia's wet conifer forests and mountain ash forests in southern Australia.

Professor Lindenmayer said the study had ''huge implications'' for future forest management and bushfire control in Australia.

''We can't ignore the risks, particulary in the face of climate change. These trends are occurring in moist forests right across the planet. There are no excuses, no reason to claim Australia's forests are somehow different. We've got to face up to reality and do some serious thinking,'' he said.

The study, published by the international journal Conservation Letters found logging altered forest fire regimes by changing the amount, type and moisture content of fuels. The paper's four authors include University of Maine conservation biologist Malcolm Hunter and Canadian Forest Service senior research scientist Philip Burton.

Professor Lindenmayer said the team wanted to investigate whether logging made forests more or less fire-prone. ''This is a question that gets debated after any big bushfire, and we usually hear all sorts of uninformed opinions from lobby groups. So we said, 'Right, let's do some serious science.' We looked at moist forests because fires usually occur at a relatively lower frequency than dry forests.''

The team found logging changed moist forest microclimates, drying out understorey vegetation and leaf litter. Roads built for logging access also increased the number of ignition points for fires, and the area of forest edge susceptible to drying.

The study said research published almost 15 years ago, found clear-felling of moist forests in southern Australia led to ''the development of dense stands of regrowth saplings that created more available fuel'' than if the forests were not clear-felled. Professor Lindenmayer, who has spent more than 30 years doing research in the mountain ash forests near Marysville, said decades of logging had ''created a legacy of ecosystem disturbance that will be felt for centuries''.

Healing the hole in the ozone layer could heat Antarctica

ALOK JHA

The Age, December 3, 2009

http://www.theage.com.au/environment/healing-the-hole-in-the-ozone-layer-could-heat-antarctica-20091202-k6e6.html

The report, Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment, can be downloaded here - http://www.scar.org/publications/occasionals/acce.html

LONDON: The hole in the Earth's ozone layer has protected Antarctica from the worst effects of global warming until now, according to the most comprehensive review to date of the state of the Antarctic climate. But scientists warned that as the hole closes up in the next few decades, temperatures on the continent could rise by about 3 degrees on average, with melting ice contributing to a global sea-level increase of up to 1.4 metres.

The western Antarctic peninsula has seen rapid ice loss as the world has warmed, but other parts of the continent have paradoxically been cooling, with a 10 per cent increase in ice in the seas around the region in recent decades. Many climate change sceptics have used the Antarctic cooling as evidence against global warming.

John Turner of the British Antarctic Survey said scientists are now ''very confident'' that the anomaly had been caused by the ozone hole above Antarctica. ''We knew that, when we took away this blanket of ozone, we would have more ultraviolet radiation. But we didn't realise the extent to which it would change the atmospheric circulation of the Antarctic.''

These changes in weather have increased winds in the Southern Ocean and meant that a large part of the continent has remained relatively cool compared with the western peninsula. But because the chlorofluorocarbon gases that caused the ozone hole have now been banned, scientists expect the damage to repair itself within the next 50 to 60 years. By then the cooling effect will have faded away and Dr Turner said the Antarctic would face the full effects of global warming.

This means an increase in average air temperatures of about 3 degrees and a reduction in sea ice by about a third.

The biggest threat to the continent comes from warming seas. Robert Bindschadler, a glaciologist at NASA who monitors Antarctic ice sheets, said: ''The heat in the ocean is getting underneath the floating ice shelves, these floating fringes of the ice sheet that are hundreds of metres thick. That warm water is melting the underside of the ice shelf, reducing the buttressing effect.''

Published by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, a coalition of experts that co-ordinates research in the region, the report has been published to give negotiators in Copenhagen the most up-to-date science available. ''Everything is connected - Antarctica may be a long way away but it is an important part of the Earth's system,'' said Colin Summerhayes, the executive director of SCAR.

SCAR's review also corroborated recent work by Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany, which says average sea-level rises will be closer to 1.4 metres by the end of the century. This is higher than the rise predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, Dr Turner said, because the IPCC's forecasts did not include the impact of melting ice sheets on sea level rises. Many of the climate models used by the IPCC have also not taken the ozone hole into account in their simulations.

Guardian News & Media

Antarctica turns green

CATHY ALEXANDER

The Age, December 1, 2009 

http://www.theage.com.au/environment/antarctica-turns-green-20091201-k24r.html

The report, Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment, can be downloaded here - http://www.scar.org/publications/occasionals/acce.html

Antarctica is turning green.

Images of a white, barren continent could need updating as climate change brings more plants to Antarctica's formerly frozen shores.

An international report issued today has found that winter temperatures in west Antarctica have increased by as much as five degrees Celsius - and that allows cushion plants and grasses to thrive.

"We're seeing more plant growth," Dr Colin Summerhayes, executive director of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research, said.

"It's getting a bit greener."

The SCAR report found warm temperatures brought summer rain instead of snow to western Antarctica - that's the bit near South America - so more rock and soil was exposed to the sky and to plants. And thanks to human visitors, 'alien' species like flies and bacteria were also increasing.

Dr Summerhayes, speaking from Cambridge University in the UK, said part of Antarctica was starting to look like Macquarie Island.

But scientists and tourists heading to the South Pole shouldn't leave behind their snow shoes just yet.

Antarctica's climate is a mixed bag, the report found. Part of the continent is warming up, but other areas are stable or cooling - which has prompted some to question whether climate change is actually happening.

The report's authors said its findings were consistent with human-induced climate change and the explanation for the warming was the hole in the ozone layer, which has brought stronger, cooler winds.

The report found there has been little change in temperature over most of Antarctica, and sea ice has increased by 10 per cent in the last 30 years.

But sea ice doesn't affect sea levels - it's the ice which sits on land that counts. And Antarctica's land ice, in the form of ice shelves and glaciers, is melting.

Dr Summerhayes said some western Antarctic glaciers were retreating 10 metres a day.

"Icebergs are spinning off the end of that glacier much faster than they ever did, and they are melting and contributing to sea level rise," he said of the Amundsen glacier.

The SCAR report found that melting of the western Antarctic ice sheet would likely contribute "tens of centimetres" to a global sea level rise of up to 1.4m by 2100, which is a greater rise than UN scientists have predicted.

Dr Summerhayes said the ozone layer was tipped to close later this century - good news for Aussie beachgoers who may escape skin cancer, but bad news for Antarctic penguins because warming would accelerate.

The SCAR report, Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment, is based on work from 100 scientists in 13 countries.

AAP